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Wavelet-Enhanced Neural ODE and Graph Attention for Interpretable Energy Forecasting
Accurate forecasting of energy demand and supply is critical for optimizing sustainable energy systems, yet it is challenged by the variability of renewable sources and dynamic consumption patterns. This paper introduces a neural framework that integrates continuous-time Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs), graph attention, multi-resolution wavelet transformations, and adaptive learning of frequencies to address the issues of time series prediction. The model employs a robust ODE solver, using the Runge-Kutta method, paired with graph-based attention and residual connections to better understand both structural and temporal patterns. Through wavelet-based feature extraction and adaptive frequency modulation, it adeptly captures and models diverse, multi-scale temporal dynamics. When evaluated across seven diverse datasets: ETTh1, ETTh2, ETTm1, ETTm2 (electricity transformer temperature), and Waste, Solar, and Hydro (renewable energy), this architecture consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in various forecasting metrics, proving its robustness in capturing complex temporal dependencies. Furthermore, the model enhances interpretability through SHAP analysis, making it suitable for sustainable energy applications.
- North America > United States (0.68)
- Asia > Japan (0.04)
- Asia > Bangladesh (0.04)
- Africa (0.04)
- Overview (1.00)
- Research Report (0.82)
- Workflow (0.68)
- Energy > Renewable > Solar (0.93)
- Government > Regional Government > North America Government > United States Government (0.68)
Statistical and Predictive Analysis to Identify Risk Factors and Effects of Post COVID-19 Syndrome
Leyli-abadi, Milad, Brunet, Jean-Patrick, Tahmasebimoradi, Axel
Based on recent studies, some COVID-19 symptoms can persist for months after infection, leading to what is termed long COVID. Factors such as vaccination timing, patient characteristics, and symptoms during the acute phase of infection may contribute to the prolonged effects and intensity of long COVID. Each patient, based on their unique combination of factors, develops a specific risk or intensity of long COVID. In this work, we aim to achieve two objectives: (1) conduct a statistical analysis to identify relationships between various factors and long COVID, and (2) perform predictive analysis of long COVID intensity using these factors. We benchmark and interpret various data-driven approaches, including linear models, random forests, gradient boosting, and neural networks, using data from the Lifelines COVID-19 cohort. Our results show that Neural Networks (NN) achieve the best performance in terms of MAPE, with predictions averaging 19\% error. Additionally, interpretability analysis reveals key factors such as loss of smell, headache, muscle pain, and vaccination timing as significant predictors, while chronic disease and gender are critical risk factors. These insights provide valuable guidance for understanding long COVID and developing targeted interventions.
- Europe > United Kingdom (0.14)
- Europe > Netherlands (0.04)
- Europe > Germany (0.04)
- Europe > France (0.04)
- Research Report > New Finding (1.00)
- Research Report > Experimental Study (1.00)
MSGCN: Multiplex Spatial Graph Convolution Network for Interlayer Link Weight Prediction
Wilson, Steven E., Khanmohammadi, Sina
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been widely used for various learning tasks, ranging from node classification to link prediction. They have demonstrated excellent performance in multiple domains involving graph-structured data. However, an important category of learning tasks, namely link weight prediction, has received less emphasis due to its increased complexity compared to binary link classification. Link weight prediction becomes even more challenging when considering multilayer networks, where nodes can be interconnected across multiple layers. To address these challenges, we propose a new method named Multiplex Spatial Graph Convolution Network (MSGCN), which spatially embeds information across multiple layers to predict interlayer link weights. Extensive experiments using data with known interlayer link information show that the MSGCN model has robust, accurate, and generalizable link weight prediction performance across a wide variety of multiplex network structures.
Log Optimization Simplification Method for Predicting Remaining Time
Ye, Jianhong, Zhang, Siyuan, Lin, Yan
Information systems generate a large volume of event log data during business operations, much of which consists of low-value and redundant information. When performance predictions are made directly from these logs, the accuracy of the predictions can be compromised. Researchers have explored methods to simplify and compress these data while preserving their valuable components. Most existing approaches focus on reducing the dimensionality of the data by eliminating redundant and irrelevant features. However, there has been limited investigation into the efficiency of execution both before and after event log simplification. In this paper, we present a prediction point selection algorithm designed to avoid the simplification of all points that function similarly. We select sequences or self-loop structures to form a simplifiable segment, and we optimize the deviation between the actual simplifiable value and the original data prediction value to prevent over-simplification. Experiments indicate that the simplified event log retains its predictive performance and, in some cases, enhances its predictive accuracy compared to the original event log.
AI-Driven Optimization of Hardware Overlay Configurations
Designing and optimizing FPGA overlays is a complex and time-consuming process, often requiring multiple trial-and-error iterations to determine a suitable configuration. This paper presents an AI-driven approach to optimizing FPGA overlay configurations, specifically focusing on the NAPOLY+ automata processor implemented on the ZCU104 FPGA. By leveraging machine learning techniques, particularly Random Forest regression, we predict the feasibility and efficiency of different configurations before hardware compilation. Our method significantly reduces the number of required iterations by estimating resource utilization, including logical elements, distributed memory, and fanout, based on historical design data. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves high prediction accuracy, closely matching actual resource usage while accelerating the design process.
Machine Learning Models for Reinforced Concrete Pipes Condition Prediction: The State-of-the-Art Using Artificial Neural Networks and Multiple Linear Regression in a Wisconsin Case Study
Mohammadagha, Mohsen, Najafi, Mohammad, Kaushal, Vinayak, Jibreen, Ahmad Mahmoud Ahmad
The aging sewer infrastructure in the U.S., covering 2.1 million kilometers, encounters increasing structural issues, resulting in around 75,000 yearly sanitary sewer overflows that present serious economic, environmental, and public health hazards. Conventional inspection techniques and deterministic models do not account for the unpredictable nature of sewer decline, whereas probabilistic methods depend on extensive historical data, which is frequently lacking or incomplete. This research intends to enhance predictive accuracy for the condition of sewer pipelines through machine learning models artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR) by integrating factors such as pipe age, material, diameter, environmental influences, and PACP ratings. ANNs utilized ReLU activation functions and Adam optimization, whereas MLR applied regularization to address multicollinearity, with both models assessed through metrics like RMSE, MAE, and R2. The findings indicated that ANNs surpassed MLR, attaining an R2 of 0.9066 compared to MLRs 0.8474, successfully modeling nonlinear relationships while preserving generalization. MLR, on the other hand, offered enhanced interpretability by pinpointing significant predictors such as residual buildup. As a result, pipeline degradation is driven by pipe length, age, and pipe diameter as key predictors, while depth, soil type, and segment show minimal influence in this analysis. Future studies ought to prioritize hybrid models that merge the accuracy of ANNs with the interpretability of MLR, incorporating advanced methods such as SHAP analysis and transfer learning to improve scalability in managing infrastructure and promoting environmental sustainability.
- North America > United States > Wisconsin (0.41)
- North America > United States > Texas > Tarrant County > Arlington (0.14)
- Asia > Middle East > Iran > Tehran Province > Tehran (0.04)
- Research Report > Experimental Study (0.94)
- Research Report > New Finding (0.68)
- Health & Medicine (1.00)
- Law (0.93)
- Construction & Engineering (0.82)
- (2 more...)
Predicting House Rental Prices in Ghana Using Machine Learning
The housing market in Ghana has been facing significant challenges, with the rental sector being particularly affected by issues such as the advance rent system, asymmetrical perceptions between landlords and tenants, and the lack of an institutional framework for regulating the market [2]. These challenges create a highly dynamic and often opaque rental environment, where both tenants and landlords face difficulties in determining fair rental prices. This issue is further exacerbated by the absence of comprehensive and up-to-date data on rental trends, making it challenging for stakeholders to make informed decisions. In recent years, the use of machine learning in real estate has gained traction globally as a means to address such challenges. Machine learning (ML) models can analyse large datasets, uncover hidden patterns, and make accurate predictions, thereby providing valuable insights for various stakeholders in the housing market.
Predicting Customer Lifetime Value Using Recurrent Neural Net
Chen, Huigang, Ng, Edwin, Smyl, Slawek, Steininger, Gavin
This paper introduces a recurrent neural network approach for predicting user lifetime value in Software as a Service (SaaS) applications. The approach accounts for three connected time dimensions. These dimensions are the user cohort (the date the user joined), user age-in-system (the time since the user joined the service) and the calendar date the user is an age-in-system (i.e., contemporaneous information).The recurrent neural networks use a multi-cell architecture, where each cell resembles a long short-term memory neural network. The approach is applied to predicting both acquisition (new users) and rolling (existing user) lifetime values for a variety of time horizons. It is found to significantly improve median absolute percent error versus light gradient boost models and Buy Until You Die models.
Advancing Parkinson's Disease Progression Prediction: Comparing Long Short-Term Memory Networks and Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks
Roy, Abhinav, Gyanchandani, Bhavesh, Oza, Aditya, Sharma, Abhishek
Parkinson's Disease (PD) is a degenerative neurological disorder that impairs motor and non-motor functions, significantly reducing quality of life and increasing mortality risk. Early and accurate detection of PD progression is vital for effective management and improved patient outcomes. Current diagnostic methods, however, are often costly, time-consuming, and require specialized equipment and expertise. This work proposes an innovative approach to predicting PD progression using regression methods, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and Kolmogorov Arnold Networks (KAN). KAN, utilizing spline-parametrized univariate functions, allows for dynamic learning of activation patterns, unlike traditional linear models. The Movement Disorder Society-Sponsored Revision of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) is a comprehensive tool for evaluating PD symptoms and is commonly used to measure disease progression. Additionally, protein or peptide abnormalities are linked to PD onset and progression. Identifying these associations can aid in predicting disease progression and understanding molecular changes. Comparing multiple models, including LSTM and KAN, this study aims to identify the method that delivers the highest metrics. The analysis reveals that KAN, with its dynamic learning capabilities, outperforms other approaches in predicting PD progression. This research highlights the potential of AI and machine learning in healthcare, paving the way for advanced computational models to enhance clinical predictions and improve patient care and treatment strategies in PD management.
- Research Report > Experimental Study (0.69)
- Research Report > New Finding (0.46)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Neurology > Parkinson's Disease (1.00)
- Health & Medicine > Therapeutic Area > Musculoskeletal (1.00)
Graph Neural Network for Cerebral Blood Flow Prediction With Clinical Datasets
Kim, Seungyeon, Lee, Wheesung, Ahn, Sung-Ho, Lee, Do-Eun, Lee, Tae-Rin
Accurate prediction of cerebral blood flow is essential for the diagnosis and treatment of cerebrovascular diseases. Traditional computational methods, however, often incur significant computational costs, limiting their practicality in real-time clinical applications. This paper proposes a graph neural network (GNN) to predict blood flow and pressure in previously unseen cerebral vascular network structures that were not included in training data. The GNN was developed using clinical datasets from patients with stenosis, featuring complex and abnormal vascular geometries. Additionally, the GNN model was trained on data incorporating a wide range of inflow conditions, vessel topologies, and network connectivities to enhance its generalization capability. The approach achieved Pearson's correlation coefficients of 0.727 for pressure and 0.824 for flow rate, with sufficient training data. These findings demonstrate the potential of the GNN for real-time cerebrovascular diagnostics, particularly in handling intricate and pathological vascular networks.
- North America > United States > New Mexico > Los Alamos County > Los Alamos (0.05)
- Asia > South Korea > Busan > Busan (0.05)
- Europe > Germany (0.04)
- (2 more...)